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| Elena Alexis Ashford |
Although the COVID-19 pandemic affected the world negatively, when it came to Canadian immigration, foreign nationals physically located in Canada saw a blue sky of opportunities. The Canadian government implemented multiple special measure programs for temporary residents of Canada (international students, foreign workers and visitors), which permitted many foreign workers to become permanent residents. Post-graduate work permit holders were allowed to renew their permits, which are normally issued only once. The immigration forecast projected sunny days despite continuous lockdowns, travel restrictions and extended processing times.
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The weather always changes though, and immigration regulations are never static. Canadian immigration officially entered its seasonal change in September 2024, and as of November, skies are dark. For the first time in Canadian immigration history, the government’s Immigration Levels Plan includes specific targets for temporary residents (visitors, international students and temporary foreign workers), as well as for permanent residents. Canada aims to reduce its non‑permanent resident volumes to five per cent of the population by the end of 2026 on the grounds that as the country moves away from post-pandemic measures, “there is a need to better align temporary and permanent resident immigration levels with community capacity.” The Levels Plan communicates the clear need for “a well-managed migration system,” which brings new uncertainty to temporary residents who have already spent several years studying or working in Canada.
International students and recent foreign national graduates are currently under extreme pressure that rises with every government announcement. The path to becoming a permanent resident of Canada is the narrowest it has ever been. Changes in immigration regulations will mean that a significant number of temporary residents will have to leave Canada in the next two to three years.
In other words, a storm is coming. It will wipe out all the building blocks towards permanent residency for many who will have no option to legally remain in Canada. Many foreign workers will lose their jobs due to inability to renew work permits and lack of ability to apply for permanent residence.
It will be cloudy for study permit applicants located outside Canada. For 2025, the government will cap the total number of approved study permits at 437,000. Those who will be granted study permits may not be able to be accompanied by their spouses. The work permit eligibility for spouses of international students will be limited to spouses of master’s degree students whose Canadian study program is at least 16 months in duration. When it comes to spouses of foreign workers, the government will limit work permit eligibility to spouses of foreign workers in management or professional occupations or in sectors with labour shortages.
These sudden and rapid changes in the immigration forecast will put immense pressure not only on temporary residents but also on Canadian employers. The government’s changes that came into force on Sept. 26, 2024, significantly reformed the Temporary Foreign Worker Program. One of the key changes is that the employers who pay their foreign workers a wage that is below provincial median wage are only able to support a one-year work permit (decreased from the previous two-year duration). Considering that it can take up to a year to process an application for a Labour Market Impact Assessment and a work permit, there will be little incentive for employers to support a work permit application for a foreign national paid below median wage. On Nov. 8, 2024, Ontario’s median wage increased from $28.39 to $34.07, and the median wage increased in all provinces and territories. When it rains, it pours.
The government acknowledges that “Canada is experiencing more asylum claims as the number of displaced people worldwide continues to grow, and that contributes to growing temporary resident volumes.” My prediction is that we will see a growing number of asylum and refugee claims. Apart from individuals who have meritorious grounds to apply for asylum or refugee status, there will be a rising number of claimants who simply see no other option than cheating their way through the system. Many in both groups will have dependent children included in their applications. A “dependent child” is defined as a child who is below age 22 and who has no spouse or common-law partner. Someone who is over 22 years of age but fully depends on their parent in day-to-day life due to a physical or mental impairment is also qualified as a dependent child.
Public opinion about immigration is low and falling with a clear majority of Canadians feeling there is too much immigration. The government’s efforts to limit the number of temporary residents in Canada seem to be approved by most Canadians so far, largely due to the perception that the housing crisis is caused, at least in part, by high immigration volume.
My personal story is that of an immigrant who came to Canada with a Russian law degree as an international student when 20 years old. I did not speak English and had no relatives or friends in Canada. I was ready to work hard and to build from scratch; and 11 years later, I was called to the bar in Ontario. Lately, I often hear negative opinions about immigrants, yet, I am an immigrant helping other immigrants to build their lives in Canada. While I am proud to help others with immigration matters, I respect the opinions of those who are concerned about high immigration levels seen in recent years.
It is a tough climate to practice immigration law. For those lawyers consultants just starting in the field, the learning curve will be as steep as ever. We have entered extreme immigration climate conditions; it is mainly gloomy and there is no sunshine in sight.
As an immigration law practitioner, I deal with any climate wherever the “weather” takes me, and I firmly believe that every cloud has a silver lining. I am also aware of the great responsibility and privilege to assist clients in the most difficult times. Many of my clients are Canadian companies and organizations currently struggling to sustain their workforce. All I can do is to keep diligently practicing law in this challenging environment. Eventually, there will be a more optimistic forecast for newcomers who wish to build their future in Canada and for Canadian business owners who have a real need to employ foreign workers. Eventually, the seasons will change once again.
Elena Alexis Ashford practises immigration law at Siskinds LLP in London, Ont. In 2008, she moved to Canada from Russia after obtaining a law degree. In 2019, she joined Siskinds as a second year associate. Her personal experience inspired her career in immigration, and she built the immigration department from the ground up. She previously supervised law students on criminal defence and immigration cases at Western University legal clinic and is well-recognized by the criminal defence bar for her immigration opinion writing skills.
The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the author’s firm, its clients, LexisNexis Canada, Law360 Canada or any of its or their respective affiliates. This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal advice.
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